This site reviews essential background knowledge required for trading on prediction markets. It also describes basic trading strategies.
Prediction markets aggregate and make visible informed opinion about future events. Prediction markets have proven capable of forecasting the outcome of political elections and scientific experiments. Although trading on prediction markets such as PredictIt and Betfair resembles trading on other electronic markets, some conventions and trading strategies are particular to prediction markets.
- Andrew Lee, PhD, is a Brooklyn-based researcher with over a decade of experience in statistical consulting and software engineering. His involvement in prediction markets grew out of an interest in political forecasting. His first trades were made on the InTrade exchange in 2012. For the moment, he wagers that prediction markets benefit the public by gathering useful information from a diverse population.